By Jorgen Randers, G. Bologna
1972: su incarico del membership di Roma, un gruppo di studiosi dell’MIT pubblica I Limiti dello sviluppo, che prefigura gli effetti della crescita della popolazione, dei consumi e dell’inquinamento su un pianeta fisicamente limitato. Dopo decenni di critiche feroci, ormai si ammette che le conclusioni di quello studio erano corrette.
2012: Jorgen Randers, uno dei coautori di I limiti dello sviluppo, fa il punto su quanto è successo e prova a delineare il futuro globale da qui al 2052. Vivremo sempre più nelle città, saremo più connessi e creativi, e dovremo trovare nuovi modi in keeping with gestire le tensioni dovute alle diseguaglianze crescenti. Probabilmente l. a. popolazione non crescerà quanto previsto, con una riduzione degli impatti sulla biosfera, ma le rinnovabili non riusciranno a rimpiazzare i combustibili fossili in pace in keeping with eliminare del tutto los angeles possibilità di un riscaldamento climatico catastrofico... Nessun settore è escluso, e Randers ci mette a disposizione una guida in line with interpretare e gestire le turbolenze dei prossimi quarant’anni.
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Extra info for 2052: scenari globali per i prossimi quarant’anni
WN, R1, R2, . . , RM), where Wi (i = 1, 2, . . , N) is i's welfare index and Rj (j = 1, 2, . . g. the right to free speech). So, there are N + M constituents of social well-being. Imagine now that V respects efﬁciency in this (N + M)-dimensional space, which is to say that if for all i and for all j, with strict inequality for at least one, then . It must then be that, given any set of feasible social states, Y, the optimum is efﬁcient. Let be the optimum in Y. It is a point on a space of N + M dimensions.
The quality of life suffers on account of this. Social scientists call it a transaction cost. Just as citizens in Agathotopia face agency problems in their transactions with one another, the State faces an agency problem vis-à-vis citizens. The State recognizes that citizens will not divulge private information, even on matters that would help promote social well-being, unless it is in their personal interest to do so. Therefore, the State is unable to help bring about as good a state of affairs as its counterpart in Utopia is capable of.
The community may pursue different goals at the same time, and it may compromise one goal for the sake of another . . Rights may also be absolute: a political theory which holds a right to freedom of speech as absolute will recognize no reason for not securing the liberty it requires for every individual; no reason, that is, short of impossibility. Rights may also be less than absolute; one principle might have to yield to another . . We may deﬁne the weight of a right, assuming it is not absolute, as its power to withstand such competition.